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#RSGrammyCentral: 2022 Song Of The Year Grammy Nomination Predictions

A songwriter’s award – will Olivia Rodrigo drive away with Grammy gold for “Driver’s License” or will H.E.R. score a repeat win with her Oscar-winning song?

Amit Vaidya Nov 20, 2021

Taylor Swift. Photo: Beth Garrabrant

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Song of the Year is a peculiar award – while the Grammy is deemed a “songwriter’s award”, there have been instances where the Record and Song of the Year end up being the same one, as was the case two years ago with Billie Eilish’s “Bad Guy”. But last year, there was a split and Eilish took home Record of the Year for “Therefore I Am” and H.E.R. took home the Song of the Year award for “I Can’t Breathe”. Strangely, it’s possible that we could see a repeat of this feat this year too, if Eilish wins Record of the Year for “Happier than Ever” and H.E.R. wins in this category.

Of course, neither artist is the frontrunner this year, with Olivia Rodrigo trying to match Eilish’s accomplishment from two years ago, winning all of the Big 4 categories including Song of the Year. Here are the eight nominees likely to be included next week by the Grammys shortlist. 

“Driver’s License” – Olivia Rodrigo

An instantly iconic song by a new artist with a bridge so monumental that it became a part of a sketch on Saturday Night Live. “Driver’s License” is the kind of song the Grammy’s love and it happens to be by one of the hottest young stars who also is in a strong position to win. If Rodrigo wins Song of the Year (they usually award this earlier in the evening before Record of the Year), she’s likely winning Record of the Year too, with a chance of bagging Best New Artist and Album of the Year as well. 

“Fight for You” – H.E.R. 

Rodrigo’s biggest competition is likely to get a nomination for her Oscar-winning song “Fight For You” but “Damage” stands a good chance too. Regardless of the song, H.E.R. will try for her second consecutive Song of the Year win here and there’s enough reason to believe that she may just score that win too. 

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“Leave the Door Open” – Silk Sonic

Bruno Mars has already won 11 Grammys and it’s likely if he wins here with Anderson .Paak on their Silk Sonic collaboration, there’s simply no way they won’t pick up Record of the Year too. A solid track sonically and lyrically, it’s likely going to be a toss-up between “Leave The Door Open” and “Driver’s License”, and the age of the Academy voter will be the deciding factor. 

“Starting Over” – Chris Stapleton

Chris Stapleton will likely receive a nod here for his rustic love song/country hit “Starting Over”, especially if he also gets the Album of the Year recognition. Both would be well-deserved and Stapleton is likely the sole country nod that will make the Top 8 this year, so this seems almost a lock because of those odds. 

“Willow” – Taylor Swift 

Former country queen Swift’s “Willow” is likely to get some love in the songwriting category but could get snubbed for Record of the Year. While the single did hit #1, Swift probably will need to just be happy with the nomination as the song hasn’t proven to be as memorable as some of the re-released “Taylor’s Version” tracks that have not only charted again but also sparked conversations. Of course, those tracks do reflect on Swift as a songwriter which may ironically help her win here.  

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“Happier Than Ever” – Billie Eilish

Eilish has quickly become the female Bruno Mars – nominated every time regardless of the song, something that’s happening this year as well, even though she dethroned Lorde, and now Olivia Rodrigo is likely going to do that to her this year. Nevertheless, Eilish still has a lot of love from Grammy voters and the nomination will prove that. 

“Good Days” – SZA

Ideally, SZA would also get a Record of the Year nod for this beautiful single but chances are, much like H.E.R., she’s likely to be recognized here with the songwriter’s award. “Good Days” is personally one of my favorite tracks of the year and its inclusion here would be just and well-deserved.

“Right on Time” – Brandi Carlile

Carlile is a Grammy darling and likely to land a Song of the Year nod here for her “Right on Time”. A beautiful track that focuses on what life was like during the pandemic, the song is likely to attract the older Academy voters who pick substance over commercial success. But with the larger body now deciding the nominees, it remains uncertain if it’ll work in Carlile’s favor or against. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. 

Nomination Spoilers 

“Shame Shame” – Foo Fighters

“Heartbreak Anniversary” – Giveon

“Let Me Love You Like a Woman” – Lana Del Rey

“I Am Not a Woman, I’m a God” – Halsey

“Position” – Ariana Grande 

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